Iowa Is Always An Overreaction

Diehard sports fans, in any sport, can be giddy or inconsolable after the first game of the year.

It’s the smallest sample size, the least-relevant, but still…it feels like an omen. And it’s totally forgotten by season’s end.

The Iowa caucuses are like that. And I mean no disrespect to Iowans. I love you guys. It’s not your fault that we read way too much into your contest every four years.

All you really need to know here is that 2000 was the last time that our 29th state picked a Republican winner, George W. Bush. Recent caucus victors have been  Ted Cruz (2016), Rick Santorum (2012) and Mike Huckabee (2008)

By the way, the runners-up in 2000 were Steve Forbes and Alan Keyes, and if you hadn’t practically forgotten them, you’re a better man than I. Or a better woman than I.

So, whoever told Ron DeSantis to go all in on Iowa, and grossly-overspend everyone else in the GOP field, did him no favors.

I get that it’s nice to have “momentum” and “buzz”.  Just know that that’s all you’re taking with you when you leave.

Trump also played hard in Iowa, in 2016, but he played hard everywhere, wanting to win everywhere. Sounds like him, right?

What is forgotten, these many years later, is that he also never broke 50 percent in any primary or caucus state until the end of April. Winning pluralities and stacking up the delegates, over the course of the marathon, is what really matters. The rest is a beauty pageant.

So, nothing that happens in Iowa today determines anything.  Win,place, or show.

But, like the first game of a long season, you will be told it means everything.